How’s Kitsap County’s economy doing? For the most part, it depends on where you live, what you do for a living, and how much you earn in a year. But generally speaking, economists Hart Hodges and James McCafferty, co-directors of the Western Washington University Center for Economic & Business Research, say Kitsap’s economic engine is slowing down.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the two predicated the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will hover around 2.1 percent in 2026, with the unemployment rate reaching around 4.7 percent. What is not likely to change anytime soon, they said is the so-called “K-shaped recovery,” in which different parts of the economy move in opposite directions at the same time following a recession or downturn. One segment—the upper arm of the K—experiences an increase in wealth due to rising asset values or incomes. The lower arm faces increasing financial strain due to declining purchasing power along with stagnating or decreasing wages.
Longer Term Issues. …
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The nation’s ever-changing political climate is causing some unusual demographic changes, Hodges and McCafferty pointed out. For instance, more people are now leaving the United States – bound for other countries – than new people moving here, which the economists say, translates into “slower growth.”
Because of Naval Base Kitsap and the County’s other government supported institutions, our region has historically had a steady 3 percent annual rate of growth. But those days are coming to a screeching halt. The economists predict a 1 percent rate of growth for the county in the year ahead. They said slower growth is being driven by changing trends at the state and federal level and are being reinforced by larger, longer-term factors.
They mentioned federal policies such as ever-changing tariffs and immigration issues, along with the onset of the War in Iran. “There’s ongoing challenges with the cost of living and affordability,” they said, and continued uncertainty – “which matters for business planning and investment.”
“Everything points to slower growth” in Kitsap County, Hodges and McCafferty said, noting that private-sector health-care industry is one notable exception, growth-wise. But even in that sector job generation will happen at the lower paying levels, McCafferty noted.
The two economists said longer-term issues for the country in general and county leaders in particular will be immigration policy, nationalism/populism, the dismissal of science and the national debt. “No one knows how much debt is too much or when problems will arise,” they said. “The question is when do savers in other countries start thinking U.S. Bonds aren’t quite so attractive.”
Rep. Emily Randall speaking
The event’s other keynote speaker was US Representative Emily Randall, WA 6th Legislative District. a Democrat from Port Orchard. “I’ve been navigating an ever-changing landscape (in Congress),” she said, noting the difficulties she and other Democratic congress people are having with tariffs, administrative policy priorities, partisanship and so on. It’s chaotic,” she said.
Randall said she has tried to cross the partisan divide by having regular dinners with fellow representatives, both Democratic and Republican “to build strong(er) relationships” so she can pass legislation to help her constituents. That approach, she admitted, hasn’t always won over opponents, but she’s determined to keep it up. “I (know) a lot of our neighbors (constituents) are feeling the impacts of what happening in D.C. The cuts to Medicaid, (the loss) of rural hospitals, (and) LGBTQ rights. The fight is hard and the risks are great to our neighbors.”
Randall said what most voters want is “predictable government,” and locally, paychecks for federal workers, and to address issues such as affordable childcare. She said she has backed legislation that has brought in nearly $18 million in Congressional allocations for Kitsap County, including the Washington State Ferry system. She is currently chairing on a Congressional caucus focused on asking for “more buckets of money for ferries.”
The caucus includes representatives of states and regions that have publicly financed ferry service. The committee will also focus on electrification of ferries, along with workforce development. “We want to make sure our ferries are reliable,” she said.
Photos By Kevin Dwyer. Some information obtained by AI
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